Life is good- The Republican nomination is McCain's to lose: Mitt Romney, thanks for playing. John McCain swept the big prizes yesterday, winning New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Missouri, and California. Romney took his home state of Massachusetts, and handily won Utah and Colorado handily as well - both states with considerable Mormon populations; he also nabbed a fistful of tiny states: Minnesota, Montana, and North Dakota. Yet the surprise story last night was left-for-dead Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who opened the day with a win at the West Virginia G.O.P. convention after McCain delegates threw him their support in a effort to block Romney (who later cartoonishly criticized Sen. McCain's "Washington insider ways"), and then took Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama in addition to his home state of Arkansas.
For the McCain camp, the big picture is bright: their candidate now has a commanding lead in delegates thanks to the RNC's winner-take-all format, and the chief opposition, Mitt Romney, is clearly on the ropes. All is not rosy on the Straight Talk Express, however: self-identified conservative voters - i.e. the Republican base - went overwhelmingly against Sen. McCain, splitting their votes between Romney and Huckabee. This trend was most obvious in the South, where conservatives actually threw Huckabee a few victories, but was palpable to the extent that only in the Northeast and California, where moderate Republicans are still the majority of primary voters, did McCain win any outright majorities. In the long run this speaks to a general lack of enthusiasm among movement conservatives for a McCain candidacy, as indicated by the vociferous opposition by a number of prominent right wing media figures, among them Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and Focus on the Family's James Dobson. Whether or not this will translate into soft support in the general election remains unseen, and probably hinges a great deal upon who the Democratic nominee ends up being.
- Hillary Clinton is in 1st place (by thismuch) : The reality of the situation is that Hillary won a 10-8 decision against Obama last night, winning the big prizes on paper, and emerging with about a hundred more delegates. The perception, which is probably more important, is that Hillary won on a TKO, decisively beating Obama in New York, New Jersey, California, and, unexpectedly, in Massachusetts, where the bulk of the state's Democratic establishment made a big show of throwing him their support two weeks ago. Obama was viewed as making a charge in Clinton's backyard in recent weeks - Slate referred to NJ as a "toss-up" state, even though polls had consistently had Hillary ahead by comfortable, if diminishing margins - but she fended him off, restoring momentum to her campaign in time for what could be a long home stretch.
The good news for Obama is that he not only survived Super Tuesday, but he's still in pretty good shape, having won thirteen states to Clinton's eight. Hillary enjoyed a tremendous built-in advantage, with New York and New Jersey virtually assured to go her way, but in neither state did she run up an enormous margin of victory, winning by only 13 and 10 points respectively (by contrast Obama took his home state of Illinois by 31 points) . In Connecticut, also considered Hillary's backyard, Obama actually managed to eke out a victory. In view of the Kennedy endorsements (and comparisons), losing Massachusetts was definitely a blow, but not an insurmountable one. The fact is that the schedule from here on out - with no more than four states on the table at one time - favors Obama's hands on approach. The more time he spends in a state, the better he does (unlike Rudy Giuliani); furthermore, as evidenced by his surprising pluralities throughout the South, Obama has been able to mobilize African-American voters (whom he carried in some instances almost 90%-10%), a fact that will undoubtedly help him in states like Maryland, Virginia, Mississippi, Texas, and Pennsylvania. Obama also enjoys a fund-raising edge, bringing in a record $32 million in January - money that will enable him to endure a protracted primary season.
For state-by-state breakdowns, as well as the schedule of upcoming primaries, I recommend the New York Times' Election Guide site.
