Not helpingWell, through two games of the World Series, we have discovered what many have suspected all along: that the Rockies aren't a .955 baseball team. In fact, having dropped two straight to the Red Sox, the Rockies' winning percentage over the last month has dipped to a mere-immortal .875. (If they win out, they can bump that back up to a still-respectable .893; get swept and they nosedive to .808. For you fans at home, that translates to roughly 130 wins over a 162 game schedule.)
Understandably, much of the discussion leading up to the Series centered around which Rockies were going to show up: the blistering team that sprinted through the NL field by sweeping both rounds (a feat never before accomplished since the introduction of the divisional round in 1995), or the team that was sitting at four games above .500, 6 1/2 back of the Wild Card on September 14? What we've seen so far suggests something in the middle. In game one the Rockies struggled both on the mound and at the plate, with starter Jeff Francis and reliever Franklin Morales staking Mr. Sox-tober Josh Beckett to a huge lead, though only two runs might have sufficed as Boston laughed its way through a 13-1 rout. Yesterday, the story was a bit different: the Rox made trouble for aging National Treasure Curt Schilling early, plating a run in the first and putting that deer-in-headlights on Red Sox Nation's collective faces. Unfortunately, after that glimmer of hope the well ran dry, and Schilling cruised through 4 1/3 more scoreless innings before giving way to an equally dominant Okajima-Papelbon tandem. The good news for the Rockies is that their pitching mostly shut down the Red Sox lineup as well, with rookie starter Ubaldo Jiminez pitching masterfully in a huge pressure spot on enemy soil, yielding only two runs to an opponent who had scored 41 times in the previous four games.
Understandably, much of the discussion leading up to the Series centered around which Rockies were going to show up: the blistering team that sprinted through the NL field by sweeping both rounds (a feat never before accomplished since the introduction of the divisional round in 1995), or the team that was sitting at four games above .500, 6 1/2 back of the Wild Card on September 14? What we've seen so far suggests something in the middle. In game one the Rockies struggled both on the mound and at the plate, with starter Jeff Francis and reliever Franklin Morales staking Mr. Sox-tober Josh Beckett to a huge lead, though only two runs might have sufficed as Boston laughed its way through a 13-1 rout. Yesterday, the story was a bit different: the Rox made trouble for aging National Treasure Curt Schilling early, plating a run in the first and putting that deer-in-headlights on Red Sox Nation's collective faces. Unfortunately, after that glimmer of hope the well ran dry, and Schilling cruised through 4 1/3 more scoreless innings before giving way to an equally dominant Okajima-Papelbon tandem. The good news for the Rockies is that their pitching mostly shut down the Red Sox lineup as well, with rookie starter Ubaldo Jiminez pitching masterfully in a huge pressure spot on enemy soil, yielding only two runs to an opponent who had scored 41 times in the previous four games.
The bright side for the Red Sox is obvious: win two more games out of the next five and you're world champions for only the second time in the last 89 years (or four, if you're charitable). For the Rockies, well, things suck a teeny bit more than that, with the best case scenario being that they sweep the series at home, in which case they would still have to pick up a W in Fenway to grease the series; ask the '04 Yankees or the '07 Indians how easy that'll be. Fact is, the Red Sox proved against Cleveland that they can play fast and loose with their backs to the wall, winning three straight elimination games to advance to the WS; the Rockies haven't so much as whiffed adversity since clipping San Diego in that one game playoff, and even then they came out ahead on a clearly blown call. Now they're face deep in a hot, steaming plate of it, with somebody just off camera shrieking "MANGIA, MANGIA" in a ridiculous Southie accent.
Yet, all hope need not be abandoned, Colorado fans; in fact, there's a pretty decent chance this series could be headed back to Boston. For one, the loss of the DH is going to hurt the Red Sox enormously; more likely than not manager Terry Francona is going to opt to drop Kevin Youkilis and play David Ortiz at first base at Coors Field. This is a double whammy, as Youkilis has been hitting nearly .400 in the postseason, while Big Papi is a defensive liability, especially against a small-ball team that is going to look to build some runs by laying down bunts and putting on the hit-and-run. Furthermore, the Sox are going to be starting Daisuke Matsuzaka and John Lester in games 3 and 4; not bad pitchers, but certainly a downgrade from the Beckett-Schilling 1-2 punch that baffled the Rox at Fenway. Sure, the Rockies pitchers are going to have to find a way to quiet the bats of Papi and Manny (and Pedroia and, uh, J.D. Drew), but their hitters also should find a way to put up more than two runs back at home with what will doubtlessly be an insanely energized atmosphere. Also, Coors Field, like Fenway, is a park with it's own little odd ins-and-outs (like the fact that it's a mile above sea level), which should provide the home team with a bit of an edge.
Of course, above all of this hangs the specter of Josh Beckett, who looms over this World Series like no pitcher since Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling handed in dominating performances to propel the Diamondbacks past the Yankees in 2001. Beckett initiated his legend in 2003, coming back on short rest to shut out the Yankees in game 6, icing the championship for the Marlins and earning World Series MVP honors; his playoff resume makes me wonder if he has trouble pitching when there's not an insane amount of pressure bearing down on him. The righty has simply been having an unconscious postseason, pitching to a 1.20 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 4 starts. Indeed, it's gotten to the point where the national cognoscenti have basically written off Beckett's next start, game 5 in Denver, as a loss for the Rockies, giving Boston only slightly longer odds than those on the sun rising in the east tomorrow morning. Personally, I agree; the axiom that good pitching beats good hitting seems to go double in the playoffs, and as much as I love Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, and Troy "Why am I batting seventh?" Tulowitski, I don't give them much of a chance against what has become a Force of Nature.
So, do the scrappy Rockies respond and push the series back to Boston? Well, after last night's game, I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt and say yes; they hung tough enough with the Red Sox that had the game been played in Denver the shoe might have ended up on the other foot. Saturday's game 3 will be the crucible: if Colorado can't get things going against Matsuzaka, or if Josh Fogg lays an egg, then you can put a stamp on this one and drop it in the mailbox on your way to work Monday. However, if the Rockies get their foot in the door with a win, well, they've gotten insanely hot before, and all bets are off. Clip Beckett on Tuesday night and I don't know where they have the parades in Denver, but the city fathers are going have to start working that out.
