Your Season Has Gone

"How's your change-up, David?"

Up until yesterday, I though that the worst thing that could happen to me from a sporting perspective was that I was a Jets fan. As it turns out, I was incorrect. Surely everybody deserves a little bit of the blame for blowing a 7 game lead with 17 to play: the bullpen imploded in a manner completely inconsistent with the premise that these guys are professional ball players, the bats inexplicable went to sleep at the worst of times (Jose Reyes, the fashionable pick for NL MVP before the season began, ended up being the third best short stop in his own division), and the starting pitching came up small when we needed a big game, save for John Maine's 7 2/3rds no-hit ball on Saturday.

Has anyone ever come up smaller in a big spot than Tom Glavine yesterday? Tom's line from yesterday:

0.1 IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 2 BB

For the folks at home, that works out to a 189.00 ERA. The game was over before the Mets recorded the second out of the game, let alone had an opportunity to bat. The irony is that the bullpen, which had blown basically any lead handed to it over the past three weeks, only allowed one more Marlins' run the entire game. The Mets' bats had their chances early to climb back into the game: Ramon Castro flied out deep to left field with the bases loaded and 2 down in the top of the 1st, and Paul LoDuca grounded into a fielder's choice on a botched check swing with the bases full in the bottom 3rd. By the 5th inning, the Amazins' were completely demoralized, resigned to an offseason awash in uncertainty.

What will the next six months bring? Well, the received wisdom is that Paul Lo Duca and Shawn Green are unlikely to return to Flushing next season: Lastings Milledge is probably going to be an everyday outfielder next season, and Green has too much left in the tank to ride the bench; there is no clear successor for Lo Duca (Castro is a possibility, and the team could go after Ivan Rodriguez; Jorge Posada will be a Yankee next year), but the team appears unwilling to talk about a multi-year deal with the 35 year old backstop, and Paulie has apparently ticked off management with his vociferousness in the media, especially a remark he made about the team's Latino players back in June ("It's the same three or four people every day. Nobody else wants to talk. Some of these guys have to start talking. They speak English, believe me."). Luis Castillo, whom the Mets rented from the Twins at the trade deadline, is no longer under contract, and the team will have to decide whether to try and bring him back (he's 32, has virtually no power, and is slated to undergo knee surgery in the offseason), or explore other options, such as allowing bench player Ruben Gotay a shot at second base. Moises Alou, who ended he season hitting over .400 in September, is likely to return, despite his propensity for lengthy stays on the DL.

Tom Glavine made some noises about returning for another season, but the way he finished this year (three atrocious starts against Washington and Florida, including yesterday's implosion) makes it exceedingly unlikely he will do so as a Met. The rest of the rotation is likely to remain in place, with Pedro Martinez entering the final year of his deal next season, Maine and Oliver Perez acquitting themselves reasonably well this year, El Duque pitching his way to a sub 3.00 era (when healthy), and Mike Pelfry recovering neatly from an 0-7 start to at least merit consideration in the team's future plans. There isn't much out there in the way of available starting pitching, but the Mets could attempt to acquire Twins ace Johan Santana in a trade; Minnesota's new GM has made some noise about retaining Santana, whose contract expires following the '08 campaign, but the Twins are unlikely to meet his astronomical asking price (possibly as rich as $25 million a year). The Mets would have to give up a lot of pieces, but the unprecedented nature of New York's season-ending collapse coupled with ownership's need to fill an expensive new ballpark and keep viewers tuning in to SNY should provide all the impetus necessary to try and make a huge splash this offseason.

The area of deficiency most highlighted over the past month has, of course, been the relief corps. To a man, the Mets' bullpen seemed to simultaneously suffer some type of amnesia re: the art of inducing a major league batter of any proficiency to create an out. In fact the most staggering aspect of the Mets' collapse was how many of the games the team led late before ultimately losing - a factor that undoubtedly contributed to the team's dearth of self confidence in the final weeks. Several offenders are likely to be in blue and orange next season: Billy Wagner will be in the third year of his deal, Scott Schoeneweis - who was touted as a key addition to the pen this season - will be back despite a disappointing '07 campaign (rumor has it he pitched hurt this season). Logical candidates for replacement are the egregious Guillermo Mota (mystifyingly handed a rich two year deal after testing positive for steroids - he'll be bought out) and long reliever/mop up man Aaron Sele, who is probably finished as a major leaguer. Submariner Joe Smith will probably head back to the minors for further seasoning; Aaron Heilman and Pedro Feliciano will probably return. In retrospect, the absence of Duaner Sanchez and Juan Padilla due to injury, the loss of Chad Bradford and long man Darren Oliver to free agency, and the failure of additions like Ambiorix Burgos proved the undoing of a unit key to the successes of 2006. How the Mets will improve in the bullpen at this point is unclear; on the bright side, much of the art of relieving seems to be alchemical in nature - as a friend pointed out, the Seattle Mariners led the majors in bullpen ERA, and who could have predicted that?

As it is now, a Mets squad that was supposed to be far and away the class of the National League will watch the playoffs from the friendly confines of the couch just like the rest of us bums; Jimmy Rollins, greeted at Shea with derision all season long for his crazy-foolish comments that the Phillies were the "team to beat" this year in the NL East, proved to be a self-fulfilling prophet, batting his team's way to the postseason. The future, once clear and without limits, is again plunged into darkness and doubt. Winter begins tomorrow no matter what the calendar says; maybe next year.